The fact that the National Bank of Ukraine under Kyrylo Shevchenko has to actually say that it will keep PrivatBank nationalized, and not let it fall back into the hands of former c0-owner and billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, is testimony to the question marks that are now being raised around the Kateryna Rozhkova case and the new governor’s own leadership in this respect.
Her treatment is absolutely appalling and smacks of an overzealous centralization drive that feels very Soviet and not very much in the spirit of the EuroMaidan Revolution that ended autocrat Viktor Yanukovych’s presidency in 2014.
I would remind everyone here that from the perspective of foreign investors, and I think the International Monetary Fund/G7, the NBU became the number one reform institution in Ukraine, and because of the hard work of Rozhkova, but also Valeria Gontareva, Yakiv Smoliy, Vladyslav Rashkovan, et al, et al. It became a bastion of reform, of competency, and example for others to follow. It showed that Ukraine was absolutely reformable.
Unfortunately what we now see is backtracking, and seemingly someone in the administration is eager to oust the likes of Rozhkova. Why? Whose agenda does that serve? I think the old-school oligarchs.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has made some really good and brave moves in recent weeks – on Viktor Medvedchuk and Ihor Kolomoisky, et al. – which suggests he gets it, his heart is in the right place, he is a reformer, he wants to change the system for the good.
And his opinion poll ratings are picking up, as I think people appreciate what he is doing. It suggests his path to reelection is through Western-oriented reform.
But I think some others in his team might not have the same agenda and I think he needs to read the riot act to them.
What is the Prosecutor General’s Office doing?
What is Shevchenko’s agenda herein?
What good does all this serve?
Ultimately I think the PrivatBank issue will make or break Zelensky’s presidency.
He needs to move quickly to stem the developing crisis around this Rozhkova case or he can wave goodbye to IMF money this year, and I think that would all make market access more difficult and more expensive which would just have a drag on economic recovery and the feel-good factor that Zelensky needs to win re-election.
