In 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky enjoyed landslide victories during presidential and parliamentary elections. To this day, he maintains the support of more than 40% of Ukrainians, according to recent polls.
But with local elections rapidly approaching on Oct. 25, the Ukrainian president is looking at a potential defeat in all five of Ukraine’s largest cities — Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa and Lviv.
After his party won an unprecedented parliamentary majority in July, Zelensky turned his attention to Ukraine’s regions.
Eying local elections early made sense. The ongoing decentralization reform, initiated by Zelensky’s predecessor, saw cities and villages receive more political, administrative and fiscal independence.
Soon, the Ukrainian president began attacking well-established local elites, a tactic which had handed him victory at the national level.
Zelensky forced the mayor of Ukraine’s fourth largest city to bet his job on a construction project, tried to strip Kyiv’s mayor of his powers and verbally attacked the mayor of another regional capital during a press conference.
But less than five months before local elections, Zelensky’s Servant of the People party lacks candidates who can overpower popular mayors, most of whom are now in opposition to the president.
To outmaneuver the regional elites, Zelensky’s party will most likely target the city councils, where his nationwide support and recognizable political force can give him a foothold in regional politics.
“This election will be a de facto referendum on trust in the president and his party,” political analyst Vitaly Bala told the Kyiv Post.
Key elections
For years, local elections were neglected in Ukraine. Governors, directly appointed by the president, were the decision-makers in their regions. Heads of cities and villages served multiple tenures, often switching their allegiances to align themselves with the incumbent elite.
In 2020, the situation is different.
After the 2013–14 Euromaidan Revolution, which deposed the corrupt regime of President Viktor Yanukovych, the national government began its so-called decentralization reform, giving local communities greater purview.
The parliament amended the budget code and the tax code, granting regions more financial independence. Since 2015, large cities and hromadas — a new administrative unit of smaller cities and villages that have united — saw major budget increases.
Cities and hromadas now keep 100% of the city’s property taxes and low-rate income tax for businesses. Hromadas also keep 60% of income taxes, something that only regional capitals enjoyed in the past.
As a result, the cumulative income of Ukrainian regional budgets increased from Hr 68.6 billion ($8.5 billion) in 2014 to Hr 267 billion ($10.2 billion) in 2019, despite the massive currency devaluation and economic crisis which followed Euromaidan and Russia’s invasion in 2014.
Further decentralization is set to give local communities more say over education, health care, urban planning, foreign investments and local economic development.
The institution of governors, who still have the right to overturn decisions of city mayors and village heads, will be discontinued when the parliament votes to change the constitution in accordance with the decentralization roadmap.
Regional struggles
With the national government’s influence over regional policy rapidly decreasing, local elections have taken on a new significance.
But the president — the most popular national politician — is losing the battle against local elites, who have been successfully promoting themselves for years.
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko says this isn’t exclusively Zelensky’s problem. Most national parties lack strong candidates in major cities.
“A mayor who has long held his seat, consolidated local elites, enjoys the support of residents — his position is very strong,” he adds.
Servant of the People remains popular in the regions, yet the party can’t offer a specific person who will attract electoral support during mayoral elections, says Bala.
“We have a staff shortage in the country,” Zelensky said on May 20 during a press conference, noting that the government currently lacks leaders for two ministries: energy and education.
“It applies to the local level as well,” says Bala. After inauguration, Zelensky had problems finding people to serve as governors for Ukraine’s 24 oblasts. Some regional openings remained vacant until March, nine months into Zelensky’s presidency.
Regional policy “is among Zelensky’s weakest spots,” says Fesenko.
Servant of the People lawmaker Mykyta Poturaev, who assists with the process of forming local party lists, disagrees with the notion that the top five cities are out of reach for the party.
“In many Ukrainian cities, voters support the current local authorities,” says Poturaev, “but it doesn’t mean that the Servant of the People candidates won’t have a chance in those elections.”
Poturaev didn’t mention potential candidates by names.
Fesenko says the president’s strategy during local elections will be to find popular people in specific regions and throw his support behind them.
In Kyiv, one such person will be Deputy Health Minister Viktor Lyashko, Fesenko says. “If he agrees,” he adds.
Lyashko became well-known after he began regularly appearing on television to explain how the government is handling the ongoing COVID‑19 pandemic.
Lyashko didn’t respond to a request to comment.
Popular mayors
However, finding a candidate who has a real chance of deposing a popular mayor of a major city isn’t an easy task.
Ukraine has four cities with over 1 million residents: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Odesa. All have controversial, yet popular mayors who are likely to be re-elected come October.
They also have a complicated relationship with the president.
Soon after assuming power, Zelensky’s office began a tug-of-war with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Kyiv has a special status that elevates it to the level of an oblast, meaning the Klitschko is both an elected mayor and an appointed governor. Zelensky decided to strip Klitschko of the appointed position. In July, Zelensky’s chief of staff accused the mayor of corruption. In September, the government sacked Klitschko, yet the president didn’t sign the firing.
Such contradictory steps only helped Klitschko’s popularity. In May, the mayor enjoyed the support of 41% of Kyiv residents, according to a poll conducted by the SOCIS sociological agency.
Similarly, in July, Zelensky picked a fight with Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov. The president forced Filatov to bet his job on completing construction of a bridge.
“We agreed with the mayor that on Sept. 14 there will be a grand opening of a bridge. And if not, then Mr. Filatov will write a letter of resignation,” Zelensky said on July 12. Filatov won the bet, yet the president wasn’t satisfied. He accused Filatov of building a bridge of poor quality to keep his post.
But that didn’t change the local political landscape. According to an April poll by the Rating Group, 47% of local residents approve of Filatov’s work, and 27% of respondents said they were willing to vote for him.
Furthermore, Filatov became a prominent critic of Zelensky, accusing the president of failing to consider the opinions of mayors and the needs of their cities.
“You will not be able to pretend that you are not politically responsible for the outrages that occur in the country entrusted to you,” Filatov addressed Zelensky in his April 26 Facebook post. “Especially before the local elections.”
Servant of the People hasn’t yet nominated a candidate to run against Filatov.
In Kharkiv and Odesa, the situation is similar. Zelensky didn’t publicly criticize the local authorities, but his party still doesn’t have a candidate to compete with incumbent mayors.
Kharkiv Governor Oleksiy Kucher, a former lawmaker from Zelensky’s party, was among the people mentioned as a candidate to run against the city’s heavyweight mayor, Gennadiy Kernes.
In mid-March, Kernes came into conflict with Kucher. During the COVID‑19 pandemic, the mayor initially refused to close the city’s metro and later teamed up with local business tycoon Oleksandr Yaroslavsky on pandemic response.
“If you look at our tandem with Yaroslavsky, we are moving like a tank. If you look at Kucher, he moves like a moth,” Kernes told journalists on March 20.
Kernes enjoys strong support in Kharkiv: The Rating Group poll from April shows a 69% approval rating, while 49% of Kharkiv residents are willing to vote for Kernes in the upcoming elections.
In Odesa, Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov remains strong despite facing numerous corruption allegations and political scandals; 48 percent of the city’s residents approve of his leadership.
A tough race
The situation appears to be different in Lviv. The largest city in western Ukraine, home to 750,000 people, is up for grabs.
However, Zelensky’s Servant of the People party doesn’t look strong in Lviv. The city remains the stronghold of Zelensky’s main nationwide competitor, former President Petro Poroshenko.
Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi has said on multiple occasions that he won’t stand for re-election in 2020. Sadovyi has led the city since 2006 and even oversaw the unexpected rise of his regional Samopomich party, which had a brief stint in parliament in 2014–2019.
During the 2019 presidential runoff, Lviv Oblast was the only Ukrainian region where Zelensky lost to Poroshenko. According to the April polls, Poroshenko’s party is winning in the city.
Servant of the People’s problems have also spread beyond the five major cities.
Cherkasy Mayor Anatoly Bondarenko was the latest local official to brawl with the national authorities. On May 1, Cherkasy, a regional capital home to 280,000 people, became the first city to defy nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID‑19.
In response, Zelensky called Bondarenko a “bandit.” The mayor responded by suing the president for defamation. The confrontation gained Bondarenko some electoral support, and many residents told the Kyiv Post that they are tired of strict quarantine measures imposed by the government.
Cherkasy Mayor Anatoly Bondarenko stands in his office while talking to the Kyiv Post in Cherkasy on May 6, 2020. (Kostyantyn Chernichkin)
Furthermore, two regional capitals in western Ukraine — Ivano-Frankivsk, home to 230,000 people, and Khmelnytsky, with 290,000 residents — are led by members of Svoboda, a nationalist party that failed to win seats during the 2019 parliamentary elections.
Nonetheless, both mayors are supported by 80% of their cities’ residents, according to the Rating Group poll. Svoboda is publicly critical of Zelensky’s presidency.
Zelensky’s push
But not all hope is lost for Zelensky. His nationwide support will come in handy during city council elections. In most regions, Servant of the People remains the most popular national party.
City councils are tasked with approving budgets, construction projects and other vital urban planning.
According to Fesenko, Servant of the People will allocate most of its attention to city councils.
The party will get a boost from the new election law passed in December. The law discontinues single-member districts, meaning that a candidate must represent a party to be elected to city council.
Not all mayors have parties to back them.
Since early May, rebel mayors have been discussing plans to form a “party of mayors” that can represent their interests come October. Filatov, Bondarenko and Klitschko have publicly supported the idea.
Klitschko previously led the UDAR party, which had seats in parliament. But the party merged with Poroshenko’s faction when Klitschko entered Kyiv politics.
However, the idea of creating a new party for the upcoming election cycle was eventually scrapped.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov (L) inspect a bridge in Dnipro on July 12. Zelensky challenged Filatov to finish repairing the bridge by Sept. 14, 2019. The mayor opened it on time but concerns about the quality of the bridge and alleged corruption involved in its construction remain. (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Administration)
“I think that the ‘party of mayors’ as a party of local government leaders who have united on a professional basis, is an infeasible project,” Filatov said in an interview with Novoe Vremya radio on May 22.
Separately, Kernes and Trukhanov have been successful in creating regional parties in the past. But on the national level they made the wrong bet. Their party joined forces with the pro-Russian Opposition Bloc party, which failed to pass the threshold to enter parliament during the 2019 election.
As the mayors struggle to resolve their party problem, Servant of the People is actively working to form regional party lists for the local elections. Both lawmakers and members of the presidential administration suggest and vet potential regional councillors.
Lawmaker Poturaev leads the process in Kirovograd Oblast in central Ukraine. He told the Kyiv Post that some major cities may see party primaries, which will decide the Servant of the People candidate for the mayoral race.
Fesenko says that the idea of primaries is a stunt to draw media attention, while the actual candidates will be handpicked.
According to a Servant of the People lawmaker, who wasn’t authorized to speak on record about local elections, the official regional party leaders will be named in July. They will both lead the regional campaign and compete for the mayor’s seat in the regional capitals.
According to the Rating Group polls from April, in Kharkiv, Odesa and Dnipro over 25% of respondents are ready to support Servant of the People, more than any other party. In Kyiv, this number falls to 18% — but still more than its main national competitor, Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party.
In Lviv, Servant of the People has a tough race ahead for second place.
But one thing is certain: Zelensky faces a competitive race.
“National and local elections are like classical and freestyle wrestling,” Fesenko says. “Both are wrestling, but different champions are crowned.”
